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Wealth.cat

    Prop firm challenge simulator (Monte Carlo)

    Estimate your chance of passing a prop firm challenge from your win rate, reward:risk and risk per trade, with daily and max loss limits.

    Leave empty if there is no daily limit

    Leave empty if there is no time limit

    Pass
    50.6%
    Median days to pass
    26
    Fail: daily limit
    0%
    Fail: max limit
    49.4%
    Time limit reached
    0%
    Expectancy per trade
    0 R

    Based on 2,739 simulated challenges. Model: closed-trade balance only (no floating loss during the day), the same risk on every trade, independent trades and no trading after the target is reached. Real results are usually worse.
    How to use it: a short screen recording

    7 s, no sound. Recorded on October 12, 2026 with the calculator above; numbers are examples.

    How the simulation works

    The simulator plays thousands of challenges trade by trade. Each trade wins with your win rate and pays R times your risk, or loses your risk. A challenge fails as soon as the balance touches the daily or max loss floor, passes when it reaches the target and the minimum trading days are done, and times out if it runs past the time limit.

    The same random seed is used every time, so identical inputs always give identical results.

    How to read the result

    Expectancy per trade = win rate × R − (1 − win rate), in units of risk. A negative expectancy means the strategy loses money on average, and passing is then mostly luck. Lowering the risk per trade usually lowers the chance of hitting a loss limit, but the target takes longer to reach.

    Limits of the model

    It looks only at closed trades (no floating loss within a trade), assumes the same risk on every trade and independent outcomes, and ignores spreads, slippage and consistency rules. Real results are usually worse than the simulation.

    Updated October 7, 2026